← EFL League Two 2011-12 · Mon, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A Haines
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Crawley Town win | 52% | 52% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 18% | 3.60 | fair |
| Barnet win | 21% | 31% | 4.50 | value: +38% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 12 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.