← EFL League Two 2026-27 · Tue, Oct 27, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: B Toner
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Barnet win | 43% | 2.10 |
| York win | 30% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| York −0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Barnet −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.