← EFL League Two 2026-27 · Tue, Oct 20, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: B Atkinson
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Barnet win | 63% | 1.45 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.20 |
| Swindon win | 15% | 6.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Swindon −1.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Barnet −1.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.53 |
| Under | 39% | 2.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 22 | Shots | 11 |
| 11 | On target | 5 |
| 14 | Corners | 0 |
| 7 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.