← EFL League Two 2026-27 · Sat, Aug 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: W Davis
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Barnet win | 48% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
| Shrewsbury win | 24% | 3.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Shrewsbury +0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Barnet +0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.83 |
| Over | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.