← EFL League Two 2009-10 · Tue, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A Woolmer
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Dag and Red win | 54% | 45% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 35% | 3.50 | value: +23% |
| Barnet win | 20% | 20% | 5.25 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.