← EFL League Two 2009-10 · Mon, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J Singh
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Chesterfield win | 38% | 33% | 2.50 | fair |
| Barnet win | 34% | 35% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.40 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.