← Ligue 2 2011-12 · Fri, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boulogne win | 44% | 41% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.20 | fair |
| Laval win | 27% | 27% | 3.80 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boulogne | Laval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 216.00 | 673.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1393.92 | 1460.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.23 | 41.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| league points | 33.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.34 |
| state index | -0.88 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |