← Ligue 2 2010-11 · Fri, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 66% | 52% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 29% | 4.75 | value: +40% |
| Boulogne win | 13% | 18% | 8.00 | value: +46% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Boulogne |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3245.00 | 688.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1549.20 | 1441.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.61 | -7.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 61.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.42 |
| state index | 0.69 | -0.47 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |