← 2. Bundesliga 2000-01 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Thomas Frank
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Ulm win | 36% | 2.45 |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 35% | 2.50 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 8 | Shots | 8 |
| 0 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand