← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sat, Jun 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnastic win | 62% | 48% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 29% | 4.25 | value: +23% |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 15% | 23% | 6.61 | value: +54% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gimnastic | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 4325.00 | 3.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1540.74 | 1539.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 47.42 | 46.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 70.00 | 74.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.80 |
| state index | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |