← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sun, May 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 45% | 53% | 2.15 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
| Alcorcon win | 25% | 17% | 3.98 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Alcorcon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 893.00 | 363.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1573.72 | 1496.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.97 | 9.45 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| league points | 60.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.52 |
| state index | 0.24 | 0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |