← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sat, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugo win | 36% | 41% | 2.74 | value: +12% |
| Alcorcon win | 33% | 27% | 2.96 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.11 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lugo | Alcorcon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 341.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1472.07 | 1474.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.16 | 1.77 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 51.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.44 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |