← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcorcon win | 40% | 47% | 2.44 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 3.02 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 28% | 21% | 3.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Alcorcon | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 334.00 | 365.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1487.02 | 1470.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.60 | 13.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 52.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.49 | 1.51 |
| state index | -0.09 | -0.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |