← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcorcon win | 39% | 32% | 2.50 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 34% | 3.05 | fair |
| Leganes win | 29% | 34% | 3.37 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Alcorcon | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 321.00 | 1051.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1483.31 | 1554.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.13 | -23.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| league points | 49.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.73 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |