← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sun, Jun 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponferradina win | 72% | 44% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 30% | 5.17 | value: +55% |
| Alcorcon win | 9% | 26% | 11.30 | value: +193% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ponferradina | Alcorcon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 6.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1478.40 | 1485.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.83 | -0.21 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 59.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.29 |
| state index | -0.25 | -0.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |