← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sun, May 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sp Gijon win | 72% | 65% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 23% | 5.72 | value: +30% |
| Sabadell win | 11% | 12% | 9.09 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sp Gijon | Sabadell |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1430.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1608.52 | 1370.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.34 | -43.87 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| league points | 76.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.90 | 0.93 |
| state index | 0.89 | -1.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |