← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sat, May 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recreativo win | 48% | 45% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.38 | fair |
| Sabadell win | 24% | 26% | 4.14 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Recreativo | Sabadell |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1422.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1356.58 | 1384.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.99 | -21.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| league points | 35.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 0.95 |
| state index | -1.19 | -1.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |