← Segunda División 2014-15 · Wed, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tenerife win | 38% | 27% | 2.56 | fair |
| Sabadell win | 32% | 41% | 3.09 | value: +27% |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sabadell | Tenerife |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1419.00 | 108.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1401.04 | 1420.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.62 | -17.91 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| league points | 37.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.08 |
| state index | -0.52 | -1.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |