← Segunda División 2014-15 · Wed, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sp Gijon win | 40% | 33% | 2.45 | fair |
| Alcorcon win | 30% | 35% | 3.23 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.26 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Alcorcon | Sp Gijon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 473.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1495.01 | 1603.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.75 | 23.85 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 51.00 | 72.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.89 |
| state index | 0.17 | 0.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |