← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sun, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tenerife win | 44% | 39% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.18 | value: +4% |
| Alcorcon win | 25% | 29% | 3.89 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tenerife | Alcorcon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 105.00 | 470.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1419.72 | 1495.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.56 | 19.96 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 40.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.35 |
| state index | -0.80 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |