← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugo win | 37% | 42% | 2.64 | value: +10% |
| Alcorcon win | 32% | 28% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lugo | Alcorcon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 448.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1453.33 | 1475.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.04 | -0.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 44.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.26 |
| state index | 0.03 | -0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |