← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sabadell win | 40% | 41% | 2.45 | fair |
| Lugo win | 31% | 30% | 3.12 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sabadell | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1380.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1389.72 | 1473.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.80 | 26.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| league points | 29.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.38 |
| state index | -0.56 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |