← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sat, May 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcorcon win | 42% | 25% | 2.32 | fair |
| Barcelona B win | 31% | 49% | 3.14 | value: +55% ⚠ |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barcelona B | Alcorcon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1095.00 | 119.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1530.43 | 1514.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.29 | 38.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 60.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.40 |
| state index | 0.27 | 0.48 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |