← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sat, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaragoza win | 52% | 55% | 1.88 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.71 | fair |
| Sabadell win | 22% | 21% | 4.47 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Zaragoza | Sabadell |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 331.00 | 1051.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1472.94 | 1454.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.13 | 26.47 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| league points | 50.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.42 |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |