← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sat, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcorcon win | 55% | 51% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.61 | value: +4% |
| Lugo win | 18% | 20% | 5.30 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Alcorcon | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 98.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1487.14 | 1458.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.58 | 3.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| league points | 47.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.35 |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |