← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sat, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcorcon win | 41% | 45% | 2.36 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.31 | fair |
| Sp Gijon win | 29% | 28% | 3.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Alcorcon | Sp Gijon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 91.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1477.97 | 1508.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.75 | -30.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 44.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.47 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.52 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |