← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sun, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murcia win | 39% | 40% | 2.52 | fair |
| Alcorcon win | 31% | 30% | 3.18 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Murcia | Alcorcon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 85.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1490.83 | 1475.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.63 | -4.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 51.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 1.23 |
| state index | 0.18 | -0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |