← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sp Gijon win | 45% | 41% | 2.19 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.53 | fair |
| Sabadell win | 28% | 35% | 3.54 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sabadell | Sp Gijon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1016.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1427.81 | 1515.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.39 | -28.35 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 44.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.48 |
| state index | -0.17 | -0.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |