← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcorcon win | 45% | 47% | 2.17 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.23 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 25% | 25% | 3.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Alcorcon | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 63.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1462.56 | 1530.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.88 | 47.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 37.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.59 |
| state index | -0.58 | 0.81 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |