← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sat, Jun 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sabadell win | 37% | 32% | 2.64 | fair |
| Elche CF win | 34% | 40% | 2.88 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sabadell | Elche CF |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 701.00 | 335.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1404.42 | 1567.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.28 | -4.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 51.00 | 78.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.95 |
| state index | -0.90 | -0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |