← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sun, May 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugo win | 52% | 48% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.58 | fair |
| Sabadell win | 21% | 26% | 4.70 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lugo | Sabadell |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 695.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1453.77 | 1415.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.96 | -21.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 49.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.31 |
| state index | -1.01 | -0.88 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |