← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sat, May 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 36% | 30% | 2.72 | fair |
| Alcorcon win | 35% | 43% | 2.78 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Alcorcon | Almeria |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 328.00 | 328.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1547.06 | 1572.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.56 | 12.09 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 66.00 | 68.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.74 |
| state index | -0.15 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |