← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sun, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Racing Club de Santander win | 39% | 21% | 2.50 | fair |
| Sabadell win | 33% | 51% | 3.00 | value: +54% ⚠ |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sabadell | Real Racing Club de Santander |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 688.00 | 79.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1433.69 | 1413.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.90 | -14.81 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 51.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.00 |
| state index | -0.42 | -0.63 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |