← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona B win | 46% | 51% | 2.14 | value: +9% |
| Alcorcon win | 28% | 27% | 3.54 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barcelona B | Alcorcon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 717.00 | 321.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1524.69 | 1545.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.14 | -2.42 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 56.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.71 |
| state index | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |