← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 36% | 35% | 2.68 | fair |
| Alcorcon win | 33% | 36% | 2.95 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Alcorcon | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 315.00 | 131.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1562.10 | 1595.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.70 | -2.72 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.91 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| league points | 65.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.68 |
| state index | 0.24 | 0.47 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |