← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sabadell win | 42% | 41% | 2.31 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.21 | fair |
| Numancia win | 27% | 33% | 3.57 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sabadell | Numancia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 674.00 | 1069.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1422.27 | 1499.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.25 | -13.69 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 47.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.31 |
| state index | -0.79 | -0.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |