← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 48% | 46% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
| Alcorcon win | 25% | 29% | 3.97 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Alcorcon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 307.00 | 307.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1566.22 | 1570.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.09 | 3.66 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 64.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 1.81 |
| state index | 0.82 | 0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |