← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcorcon win | 61% | 64% | 1.59 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.88 | fair |
| Real Racing Club de Santander win | 14% | 13% | 6.66 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Alcorcon | Real Racing Club de Santander |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 279.00 | 36.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1563.80 | 1412.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.55 | -8.64 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| league points | 56.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.00 |
| state index | 0.49 | -0.73 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |