← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sun, May 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sabadell win | 47% | 35% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| Numancia win | 26% | 37% | 3.60 | value: +35% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sabadell | Numancia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 331.00 | 726.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1438.04 | 1491.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.54 | 3.81 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 46.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.35 |
| state index | -0.51 | -0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |