← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sun, May 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 40% | 35% | 2.30 | fair |
| Alcorcon win | 32% | 36% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Alcorcon | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1426.00 | 331.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| elo | 1576.72 | 1654.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.84 | 17.03 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| league points | 69.00 | 81.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 2.02 |
| state index | 0.43 | 0.85 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |