← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sat, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 42% | 48% | 2.20 | value: +5% |
| Alcorcon win | 29% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almeria | Alcorcon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 565.00 | 1418.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1532.65 | 1586.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.19 | 11.74 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| league points | 58.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.74 |
| state index | -0.20 | 0.54 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |