← Segunda División 2011-12 · Wed, May 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcorcon win | 50% | 48% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
| Elche CF win | 24% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Alcorcon | Elche CF |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1415.00 | 958.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1577.02 | 1500.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.45 | -9.22 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| league points | 63.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.46 |
| state index | 0.69 | -0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |