← Segunda División 2011-12 · Fri, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordoba win | 65% | 49% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 31% | 4.33 | value: +32% |
| Gimnastic win | 13% | 20% | 7.50 | value: +50% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cordoba | Gimnastic |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 315.00 | 2840.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1520.05 | 1409.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.08 | -8.94 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 58.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 0.81 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.52 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |