← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 50% | 45% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
| Sabadell win | 23% | 27% | 4.50 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sabadell | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 309.00 | 674.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1440.58 | 1615.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.12 | -6.28 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 42.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.91 |
| state index | -0.57 | 0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |