← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcorcon win | 64% | 61% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.00 | fair |
| Murcia win | 13% | 16% | 8.50 | value: +37% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Alcorcon | Murcia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1404.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1582.56 | 1421.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.58 | -12.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| league points | 60.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.20 |
| state index | 0.92 | -0.81 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |