← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murcia win | 43% | 48% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
| Sabadell win | 28% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Murcia | Sabadell |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 302.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1412.20 | 1449.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.24 | -14.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 39.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.24 |
| state index | -1.05 | -0.61 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |