← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnastic win | 42% | 49% | 2.25 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
| Alcoyano win | 29% | 22% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gimnastic | Alcoyano |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2827.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1391.87 | 1421.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.46 | 10.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| league points | 25.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 0.97 |
| state index | -0.83 | -0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |