← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcorcon win | 44% | 51% | 2.10 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
| Cordoba win | 26% | 21% | 3.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Alcorcon | Cordoba |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1390.00 | 295.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1574.66 | 1526.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.53 | -13.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| league points | 56.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.64 |
| state index | 0.83 | -0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |