← Segunda División 2010-11 · Sat, Jun 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 69% | 52% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 25% | 4.75 | value: +21% |
| Alcorcon win | 12% | 22% | 8.00 | value: +76% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Alcorcon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 429.00 | 1068.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1534.51 | 1516.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.34 | 29.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| league points | 63.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.41 |
| state index | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |