← Segunda División 2010-11 · Sat, Jun 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponferradina win | 38% | 32% | 2.45 | fair |
| Gimnastic win | 33% | 34% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 34% | 3.10 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ponferradina | Gimnastic |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 2498.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1379.83 | 1462.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.80 | -4.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 33.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.17 |
| state index | -0.39 | -0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |